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How to become better at forecasting

  • Read some expert advice. The best advice on forecasting is still written up in Philipp Tetlock’s book Superforecasting. I like Daniel Kokotajlo’s summary of the most important points. Farnam Street has another one. Read at least one of the summaries.
  • Practice. Start forecasting. I recommend either Good Judgment Open or Metaculus. Make many predictions. Read the questions very carefully.
  • Get feedback. Share the reasoning behind your predictions with the community on the platforms. Draw lessons from any feedback that you get.
  • Learn from others. Take a look at the models and reasoning of the best forecasters in the community. Emulate them.
  • Use prediction and betting markets. Platforms like contain valuable information. Use it where applicable.
  • Improve your calibration. Use this calibration app by the Open Philanthropy Project. Practice more playfully with the Confident board game. You can find more tools I haven’t tested here.
  • Learn how to apply Bayes’ rule. Listen to Spencer Greenberg explaining the basic idea in this podcast episode. Practice with a tool he developed.

I never attended one, but you could also consider signing up for a Superforecasting workshop run by the people behind the Good Judgment Project.

You can also find more resources here.

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